By: Ashley McCubbin

Prior to Justin Allgaier winning at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, it was a track traditionally dominated by Toyota drivers. After all, they had won the six races straight prior – well, Joe Gibbs Racing had been able to. If you consider what has happened in the NASCAR Xfinity Series this season, it’s a trend that could easily continue.

Just ask John Hunter Nemechek, who picked up the checkered flag at Atlanta Motor Speedway for his third victory of the season. It also allowed him to extend his advantage atop the standings, now 16 points ahead of Austin Hill. His last Xfinity start at New Hampshire came in 2019 with GMS Racing, where he crashed out of the event. Prior to then, he picked up a fourth the year prior.

Austin Hill did not have the day he wanted in Atlanta, only finishing 11th despite being described as one of the best in superspeedway races. Though with seven straight top-10 finishes with just one of those outside the top-five, it is probably just a small hiccup that will be forgotten with a good finish on Saturday. After all, he was seventh last season.

His teammate Sheldon Creed, though, may be the one to watch. He has the best average finish of active drivers, fifth courtesy of that placement in his inaugural appearance last season. He could use a good run as the early season momentum behind him has faded courtesy of four finishes outside the top-10 including a crash at Atlanta.

The aforementioned Justin Allgaier has always ran well at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, as evident by a top-10 showing in his last four starts. He has been having a quiet season with 11 top-10 finishes in 17 races, but needs to find consistency as it has been rocky with a top-10 every other weekend. For the record, he was 17th when the checkered flag waved at Atlanta.

Cole Custer, meanwhile, has momentum on his side as he was in the battle for the win at Atlanta with a third, following his victory the week prior at Charlotte Motor Speedway. His return to NASCAR’s second-tier level has been met with success, currently sitting third in points with 11 consecutive top-10 finishes. He has scored a top-10 in each of his three previous appearances at New Hampshire, including a runner-up in 2019.

Daniel Hemric was also part of the conversation at Atlanta, having a shot to win until his teammate Justin Haley ran out of gas – but still he managed a runner-up performance. It marks his third consecutive top-eight finish, and while he crashed out of the event last year at New Hampshire, he was third in 2021.

If you follow the trend of top-10 one week and then struggling the next week, this should be a top-10 finish for Chandler Smith on Saturday as he looks for his second win of the season. However, it is worth noting he has yet to run an Xfinity event at New Hampshire in his career.

Sam Mayer has momentum on his side following a fifth at Atlanta, making his 10th top-10 in 17 races this season. He has two previous appearances at New Hampshire with a best finish of 15th.